17 August 2006

Pure Conjecture and a Dash of Post Hoc

What a crazy, interesting world we’re living in…over the last 2 months we’ve seen Israel and Hamas get into it, Israel and Hezbollah blow each other’s civilians and infrastructure all to hell, BP let the Alaskan pipeline fall into a state of such disrepair that they had to shut it down, and the British government apprehend terrorists suspected of planning to use some sorts of liquids to cause an explosion on a plane. Yet…gas prices have fallen and the stock market has climbed for three days straight for the first time in who knows how long. Something doesn’t make sense here…

While the US government encourages nations in the Middle East to blow each other to bits and strips US citizens of even more freedoms (eventually we’re all going to be flying naked) gas prices fall and the market surges in spite of news of the loss of 8 million barrels of oil a day from our economy…maybe they know something in the White House that the rest of us average Joes and Janes don’t. Or maybe…just maybe, economic actors and markets aren’t really such “rational” decision makers…

Like I said…conjecture…

And post hoc ergo propter hoc: Taking away civil liberties and allowing wars to continue unnecessarily, as well as a little terrorist scare, works wonders for the markets.

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